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Prediction for CME (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-28T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17008/-1
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-31T08:26Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 824.0 km/s 
EAMv2 output:
u_r =      887.764
Acceleration:      -1.82501
Duration in seconds:        217862.30
Duration in days:        2.5215544
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:  -1.83 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  538.6 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/05/2021 Time: 08:26 UT

Lead Time: 90.33 hour(s)
Difference: 51.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-05-29T18:00Z

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